October 8, 1862, The New York Herald
The main body of the rebel army of Virginia, at least one hundred thousand strong, under General Lee, was, at the date of our last advices, encamped between Charlestown and Winchester, apparently awaiting and expecting an attack from General McClellan. The next rebel column in importance was that of General Jo. Johnston, at Culpeper Court House, consisting of three divisions, equal, probably, to forty thousand men. There was also a considerable supporting detachment at Gordonsville; but in all that region of country east of the Blue Ridge, from Culpeper Court House to Leesburg, there appear to be no rebel troops beyond a few squads of scouting cavalry.
From this distribution of the rebel forces it would appear that General Lee has abandoned all hopes of every other line of communication with Richmond except that up the Shenandoah valley and across the Blue Ridge by way of Culpeper Court House, or by way of Gordonsville. Had he been able to hold on to Harper’s Ferry he might have commanded the more direct route to the rebel capital by way of Leesburg and Manassas; but with Harper’s Ferry in our possession General McClellan holds this route, whereby, should Lee attempt a retreat up the valley without a fight, he may be headed off or left far behind in the race for Richmond. Hence the necessity to Lee of drawing General McClellan up the Shenandoah valley, and hence the probability of very soon of a tremendous battle in the neighborhood of Winchester. From the tone of the Richmond journals it appears that Lee is not averse to this engagement, but is prepared for it, and does not absolutely despair of turning the tables against General McClellan and driving him back into Maryland.
Our only apprehension in the matter, however, is that Lee may possibly deceive our scouts by a thin line of troops, so disposed in front as to present the appearance of a great army, while the bulk of his forces, horse, foot, artillery and trains, are hurried up the valley and across the mountains to Culpeper Court House and Gordonsville. Once at these points, or at either of them, his forces may be moved northward towards Washington or southward towards Richmond, as circumstances may invite or demand. Strategy, in fact, is the only hope remaining to Lee. He must contrive to delay McClellan and get some days ahead of him, or, in the march to Richmond, of some two hundred and fifty miles, he will be overtaken, beaten and cut to pieces. That Richmond is Lee’s object we have no doubt; that he is finessing to draw General McClellan up the Shenandoah valley is manifest, and that he will slip off if he can, as Johnston did from General Patterson and from Manassas, and as Beauregard did from Corinth, is very probable.
But all the appearances and probabilities more strongly indicate an impending battle near Winchester. Our victorious army of Antietam, heavily reinforced, completely equipped and reinvigorated, is eager for the advance, while the losses and necessities of Lee’s shattered, ragged, hungry and exhausted troops, more than all other causes, have compelled him to halt in his retreat. Since he started in pursuit of the army of General Pope, Lee has lost, in killed, wounded and missing, probably not less than fifty thousand men. His losses in Maryland according to the careful estimates of General McClellan, were thirty thousand, and in his numerous battles with General Pope, from the Rappahannock to Bull Run, the losses of Lee, we dare say, were fully up to twenty thousand men. Lee was, therefore, apart from all considerations of strategy, compelled to halt near Winchester to repair damages. The Richmond journals inform us that now, his damages being repaired, he is ready again for action; and from the very necessities of his position, as we have indicated, we think he will be compelled to fight, if for nothing else, to secure, if possible, his retreat to Richmond.
Thus anticipating very soon a great battle in the Shenandoah valley, we also anticipate a crushing defeat of Lee’s army, and from this defeat the almost uninterrupted advance of our forces to Richmond, the occupation of that city by our troops, and the expulsion of every vestige of the rebel army from Virginia before Christmas. To this end there are other powerful movements afoot in addition to those of General McClellan’s army, so that the result cannot be regarded as doubtful. Considering, too, that Virginia, north of Richmond, for military purposes, is reduced to a desert, and that such, to a greater or less extent, is the condition of all our rebellious States, and that for the winter clothing of their troops all their materials of public stores and private families were exhausted last winter – that even the cheapest cotton goods are now selling at Savannah at a dollar and a half per yard – is it not apparent that with the overthrow of the great rebel army of Virginia the whole fabric of this rebellion will come to the ground.
Dreadful as are the wants and privations of our revolted States, they may prove to be a future source of congratulation to those suffering people, in compelling them to a surrender which will be their salvation. We expect this, because Southern men, with all the courage and tenacity of despair, cannot live without food, nor resist the snows and frosts of winter in the rags which may have served for a summer campaign. We anticipate, therefore, during this present month, such a defeat of the rebel army of Virginia as will result in a general collapse of this exhausted rebellion. We rely upon President Lincoln and General Halleck so to push forward the war as to defeat all the mad designs of our abolition fanatics. We expect the emancipation proclamation thus to become a dead letter by the salvation of our revolted States. We know that this is the wish and aim of President Lincoln, and the issue, under Providence, is in his hands.