April 4, 1861; The Charleston Mercury
An invasion, a campaign, or war, by land or sea, of the North on the South, is, in our opinion, gammon. Coercion is manifestly so nonsensical and absurd, that if it were practicable, it would not be attempted. And it is utterly impracticable for Mr. LINCOLN and his Rump Government to make effective war upon us. The North, to be sure, is besotted, and LINCOLN has threatened. He may hold Forts Sumter and Pickens–until obliged to yield them; he may, and probably will, keep Key West and Tortugas–because we have no naval resources–until a treaty of amity is made, or until the Confederate States have naval appliances for ousting him; but as to anything like real war, or anything beyond a few collisions concerning the forts, proving our temper and capacity in this revolution of government, we are altogether and entirely skeptical. LINCOLN’s secrecy and activity, which trouble the correspondents, go to this extent–no more: he is nonplussed and fidgetty. He desires to hold the remaining forts, if he can; and will give them up, when he must. In the meantime, and until some decided and positive course is adopted by the Confederate States’ authorities, he is audacious and vicious enough to intrigue, trifle and experiment about reinforcing and provisioning the strongholds in his possession. Fighting immediately and obviously destroys the Union party in the Border Slaveholding States, and brings them into the Southern Confederacy; it destroys, likewise, all hopes of re-establishing the broken Union which the Black Republicans all are loth to give up, and expect yet to mend; and it will raise a powerful anti-coercion party in every Northern State, who will clog and cripple the Government; it will immediately bring the Government into hostile collision with the fleets of England and France; and it will make their commerce a prey to privateers; whatever the event, it must prostrate the commercial and manufacturing interests of the North; and, lastly, it will manifestly fail either to conquer and hold the fifteen Slaveholding States as provinces, or to persuade them back into the Union as friends and equal confederates. Every dictate of reason and common sense, therefore, leads to the same conclusion. Men and peoples are controlled by circumstances and events; and the circumstances and events, in this instance, are all to the effect that the LINCOLN Government will not and cannot make war upon the Confederate States. That they will trifle and trick at the risk of bloodshed at the forts, is not out of character. But for invasion, or a campaign, or a war on sea, we confidently predict there will be none.